Title : Foresight, market and financial analysis of microalgae for aquaculture feed: use of Chlorella sorokiniana biomass in a hypothetical diet formulation for Pacific white shrimp (Penaeus vannamei)
Abstract:
With the global population projected to reach 9 billion by 2050, ensuring food security is a primary challenge for the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and a core target of Sustainable Development Goal 2 (SDG 2: "Zero Hunger and Sustainable Agriculture"). Aquaculture is widely recognized by the FAO as a high-value sector capable of bolstering food security by expanding the global protein supply. However, feed costs account for up to 70% of aquaculture operating expenses, primarily driven by the seasonality and price volatility of fishmeal—a key dietary ingredient. In Brazil, soybean meal is commonly used as a fishmeal substitute due to its high availability; however, its application is limited by antinutritional factors, low digestibility, and poor palatability.
Microalgae represent a promising alternative; these versatile microorganisms can be cultivated under diverse environmental conditions to produce biomass that is nutritionally competitive with both fishmeal and soybean meal. This study aimed to estimate the economic value of Chlorella sorokiniana biomass and evaluate its competitiveness in hypothetical feed formulations for juvenile-to-adult Pacific white shrimp (Penaeus vannamei) reared in semi-intensive and intensive pond systems. The analysis was supported by foresight methodologies, including patentometric, bibliometric, and Delphi analyses.
This research aligns scientific and technological scenarios surrounding microalgae with the aquaculture feed and supplement market—a convergence of strategic importance to Brazil in fields such as biorefineries, the circular bioeconomy, sustainable development, and food security. Beyond their utility in greenhouse gas mitigation, microalgae are highly competitive as aquaculture feed ingredients due to the polyunsaturated fatty acid (PUFA) profile of the evaluated C. sorokiniana biomass (strain LBA39, sourced from the Collection of Microorganisms and Microalgae Applied to Agroenergy and Biorefineries – CMMAABio, Embrapa Agroenergy). Notably, this strain is rich in essential omega-3 (alpha-linolenic acid) and omega-6 (linoleic acid) fatty acids.
To assess the financial feasibility of the hypothetical formulations, we applied a discounted cash flow methodology adapted to incorporate the Gompertz growth curve. The model demonstrated that utilizing this microalgae biomass is currently economically unfeasible, reflecting its low technological maturity (Technology Readiness Level 3, TRL 3). Conversely, biomass remains highly competitive from a nutritional standpoint. In the long term, it has the potential to serve as a viable alternative to soybean meals and to replace up to 40% of fishmeal in commercial feed formulations, while simultaneously contributing to climate change mitigation and food security initiatives. The current financial barriers associated with this strain can be overcome through targeted investments in scaling up cultivation systems and training specialized professionals in industrial-scale biomass cultivation and downstream processing.
