Title : Forecasting the future of marine fisheries of Indian coast in the changing era of climate
Abstract:
Change in climate have modified the marine environment and associated fishery industry broadly. Considering the climate change related threats and its impact on the economy of India, the marine fish production needs to be managed sustainably. The present study has been conducted to understand the impact of climate change in terms of sea surface temperature (SST), pH and salinity on marine fisheries of eastern Arabian Sea and western Bay of Bengal of Indian coast. The secondary data of all aquatic parameters were collected from NOAA and fish catch data were obtained from Central Marine Fisheries Research Institute (CMFRI) for last 37years (1985-2022). The findings indicated that in Bay of Bengal, increasing SST (2.17°C) and decreasing pH (0.93) and salinity (1.13psu) has shown a positive significant relationship (at 5% level) with catch of both commercially important and trash fishes. In case of Arabian Sea, although increasing SST (3.69°C) and salinity (1.37) along with decreasing pH (1.06) has shown a high r-value with commercially important fishes as well as trash fishes, but they were statistically insignificant. The forecasting ARIMA model showed a sudden decrease in both commercial and trash fishes of Bay of Bengal in near future (till 2024) and in case of Arabian Sea, a gradual increase was also observed in fish catch (up to 2051). Additionally, a comparable increase in trash fish catch was also noted, which may have an impact on the nation's economy and livelihood of fishermen community. For better management of the marine fish capture and maximum sustainable yield, strategies should be implemented taking into account the current and future scenario.
Keywords: Climate change, SST, Salinity, pH, Commercially important fish, Trash fish
